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You may say I¡­m a dreamer

But I¡­m not the only one

I hope someday you¡­ll join us

And the world will be as one.

¡ÊJohn Lenon ¡ÈImagine¡É¡Ë

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Imagine no possessions

I wonder if you can

No need for greed or hunger

A brotherhood of man

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Imagine there¡­s no countries

It isn¡­t hard to do

Nothing to kill or die for

And no religion too

Imagine all the people

Living life in peace...

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Now, when we look at the cold half-year temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere
since World War II, it is apparent that the warming is inordinately confined
to Siberia and northwestern North America (Figure 4). These are the two "source
regions" for the coldest continental airmasses on earth. Because of their
coldness, they are very dry, and because of their dryness they have very little
"natural" greenhouse effect and are consequently "warmed"
(if changing the temperature from -40¡¼ C to -38¡¼ C can be called a "warming"!)
more rapidly than moist, summer air.

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http://www.gn.apc.org/resurgence/articles/lovelock.htm
¤è¤êLovelock¤Îʸ¤ò°úÍѤ·¤Æ¤ª¤­¤Þ¤¹.

==========================================
JAMES LOVELOCK

A MODEST INHERITANCE


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the event of a world catastrophe, future generations
will need a book of knowledge to guide them in rebuilding civilization.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PERHAPS JULIAN SIMONS is right to think all will be well for the next few decades. He sees the growth of resources sufficient to meet demand. He thinks it probable that the future air will be warmer and still polluted but not enough to cause discomfort. There may be more of us in some places. There will be more cars but they will be smaller and more efficient. He expects no worse than this for at least the next twenty years.

Others, like Paul Ehrlich, see a much gloomier future. Most of us believe in the maxim "Business as usual" and so we behave like the inhabitants of Tokyo and Los Angeles. We put thoughts about the earthquake at the back of our minds. We act in the hope that the world will continue into the twenty-first century much as it is now.

Few travellers from the North would go to the tropical South without antimalarial drugs, or without checking how the nearby local war was progressing. By comparison our journey into the future is amazingly unprepared. Where people know well the local danger, as in Tokyo, they prepare for the earthquake to come. When the threats are global in scale we ignore them. Volcanoes, like Tamboura 1814 and Laki 1783, were much more powerful than was Pinatubo or Krakatoa. They affected the climate enough to cause famine, even when our numbers were only a tenth as many as now. Should one of these volcanoes stage a repeat performance, do we have now enough stored food for tomorrow's multitudes? If part of a Southern glacial ice sheet slid into the sea, the level of the sea might rise by a metre all over the world. This event would render homeless millions of those living in coastal cities. Citizens would suddenly become refugees. Do we have the food and shelter needed when cities such as London, Calcutta, Miami and Rotterdam become uninhabitable?

We are sensible and we do not agonize over these possible doom scenarios. We prefer to assume that they will not happen in our lifetimes. We take them no more seriously than our forefathers took the prospect of hell, but the thought of appearing foolish still scares us. An old verse goes, "They thieve and plot and toil and plod and go to church on Sunday. It's true enough that some fear God but they all fear Mrs Grundy."

In science we have our Drs Grundy also. They are all too eager to scorn any departure from the perceived dogma. Scientists and science advisers are afraid to admit that sometimes they do not know what will happen. They are cautious about their predictions and do not care to speak in a way that might threaten business as usual. This tendency leaves us unprepared for a catastrophe such as a global event that was wholly unexpected and unpredicted - something like the ozone hole but much more serious. Something that could throw us into a new dark age.

We can neither prepare against all possibilities, nor easily change our ways enough to stop breeding and polluting. Those who believe in the precautionary principle would have us give up, or greatly decrease, burning fossil fuel. They warn that the carbon dioxide by-product of this energy source may sooner or later change, or even destabilize, the climate.

Most of us know in our hearts that these warnings should be heeded but know not what to do about it. Few of us will reduce our personal use of fossil fuel energy to warm, or cool, our homes or drive our cars. We suspect that we should not wait to act until there is visible evidence of malign climate change - by then it might be too late to reverse the changes we have set in motion. We are like the smoker who enjoys a cigarette and imagines giving up smoking when the harm becomes tangible. Most of all, we hope for a good life in the immediate future and would rather put aside unpleasant thoughts of doom to come.

WE CANNOT REGARD the future of the civilized world in the same way as we see our personal futures. It is careless to be cavalier about our own death. It is reckless to think of civilization's end in the same way. Even if a tolerable future is probable, it is still unwise to ignore the possibility of disaster.

One thing we can do to lessen the consequences of catastrophe is to write a guide-book for our survivors to help them rebuild civilization without repeating too many of our mistakes. I have long thought that a proper gift for our children and grandchildren is an accurate record of all we know about the present and past environment. Sandy and I enjoy walking on Dartmoor, much of which is featureless moorland. On such a landscape it is easy to get lost when it grows dark and the mists come down. We usually avoid this mishap by making sure that always we know where we are and what was the path we took. In some ways our journey into the future is like this. We can't see the way ahead or the pitfalls but it would help to know what is the state now and how we got here. It would help to have a guide-book written in clear and simple words that any intelligent person could understand.

No such book exists. For most of us, what we know of the Earth comes from books and television programmes that present either the single-minded view of a specialist, or persuasion from a talented lobbyist. We live in adversarial not thoughtful times and tend to hear only the arguments of each of the special-interest groups. Even when they know that they are wrong they never admit it. They all fight for the interests of their group while claiming to speak for humankind. This is fine entertainment; but what use would their words be to the survivors of a future flood or famine? When they read them in a book drawn from the debris would they learn what went wrong and why? What help would be the tract of a Green lobbyist, the press release of a multinational power company, or the report of a governmental committee? To make things worse for our survivors, the objective view of science is nearly incomprehensible. Scientific papers and books are so arcane that scientists can understand only those of their own speciality. I doubt if there is anyone, apart from these specialists, who can understand more than a few of the papers published in Science or Nature every week.

Scan the shelves of a bookshop or a public library for a book that clearly explains the present condition and how it happened. You will not find it. The books that are there are about the evanescent things of today. Well written, entertaining or informative they may be, but almost all of them are in the current context. They take so much for granted and forget how hard-won was the scientific knowledge that gave us the comfortable and safe life we enjoy. We are so ignorant of those individual acts of genius that established civilization that we now give equal place on our book-shelves to the extravagance of astrology, creationism and homeopathy. Books on these subjects at first entertained us or titillated our hypochondria. We now take them seriously and treat them as if they were reporting facts.

Imagine the survivors of a failed civilization. Imagine them trying to cope with a cholera epidemic using knowledge gathered from a tattered book on alternative medicine. Yet in the debris such a book would be more likely to have survived and be readable than a medical text.

What we need is a book of knowledge written so well as to constitute literature in its own right. Something for anyone interested in the state of the Earth and of ourselves - a manual for living well and for survival. The quality of its writing must be such that it would serve for pleasure, for devotional reading, as a source of facts and even as a primary school text. It would range from simple things such as how to light a fire, to our place in the Solar System and the Universe. It would be a primer of philosophy and science - it would provide a top down look at the Earth and ourselves. It would explain the natural selection of all living things, and give the key facts of medicine, including the circulation of the blood and the role of the organs.

The discovery that bacteria and viruses cause infectious diseases is relatively recent; imagine the consequences if such knowledge were lost. In its time the Bible set the constraints for behaviour and for health. We need a new book like the Bible that would serve in the same way but acknowledge science. It would explain properties like temperature, the meaning of their scales of measurement and how to measure them. It would list the periodic table of the elements. It would give an account of the air, the rocks and the oceans. It would give schoolchildren of today a proper understanding of our civilization and of the planet it occupies. It would inform them at an age when their minds were most receptive and give them facts they would remember for a lifetime. It would also be the survival manual for our successors. A book that was readily available should disaster happen. It would help bring science back as part of our culture and be an inheritance. Whatever else may be wrong with science, it still provides the best explanation we have of the material world.

IT IS NO USE even thinking of presenting such a book on magnetic or optical media, or indeed any kind of medium that needs a computer and electricity to read it. Words stored in such a form are as evanescent as the chatter of the Internet and would never survive a catastrophe. Not only is the storage medium itself short-lived but its reading depends upon specific hardware and the software. In this technology rapid obsolescence is usual. Modern media are less reliable for long-term storage than is the spoken word. It needs the support of a high technology that we cannot take for granted. What we need is a book written on durable paper with long- lasting print. It must be clear, unbiased, accurate and up to date. Most of all, we need to accept and to believe in it at least as much as we did, and perhaps still do, in the World Service of the BBC.

In the dark ages of our earlier history the religious orders in their monasteries carried through the essence of what makes us civilized. Much of this knowledge was in books and the monks took care of them and read them as part of their discipline. Sadly, we no longer have callings like this. The vast collection of knowledge that is now available is more than any one person could hold. Consequently it is divided and subdivided into subjects. Each subject is the province of professionally employed specialists. Most are expert in their own subject but ignorant of the others - few have a sense of vocation. Apart from isolated institutes like the National Centre for Atmospheric Research perched on a mountain side in Colorado, there are no equivalents of the monasteries. So who would guard the book? A book of knowledge, written with authority and as splendid a read as Tyndale's bible, might need no guardians. It would earn the respect needed to place it in every home, school, library and place of worship. It would then be to hand whatever happened.

James Lovelock, CBE, FRS, is the author of
Gaia, the Practical Science of Planetary Medicine.


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-------------------------------------------------------
Carbon Dioxide: A Satanic Gas?



TESTIMONY of


Patrick J. Michaels

Professor of Environmental Sciences

University of Virginia,

and Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at Cato Institute

to the

Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources and Regulatory
Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives

Carbon Dioxide: A Satanic Gas?

October 6, 1999


Thank you for soliciting my testimony on the nature of Carbon Dioxide as a
"pollutant" with regard to global climate change. I regard a "pollutant"
as something that produces a demonstrable net negative impact on climate and
ecosystems.


"Negative" and "positive" impacts on climate are value
judgements made by human beings. Within that limitation, I submit the following:


This testimony demonstrates that the observed climate changes that have accompanied
the enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect have been considerably smaller
than they were originally forecast to be, and that they are likely to remain
similarly small. Further, they are inordinately confined into the winter, rather
than the summer, and, within the winters, they are inordinately confined to
the coldest, deadliest airmasses. There is no overall statistically significant
warming in the average temperature of the United States, which is a record of
105 years in length. While the United Nations has stated that during the greenhouse
enhancement, "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate," I cannot view what has happened as a net negative;
some might easily argue that it is a net benefit. Under neither interpretation
does this qualify carbon dioxide as a climatic "pollutant."

In January, 1989, over ten years ago, I first testified on climate change in
this House. I argued that the computerized climate models from that era were
dramatically overpredicting future warming, and that the observed history of
climate projected a much more moderate warming, of 1.0¡¼C to 1.5¡¼C, over the
next century. I further argued that it would eventually be recognized that this
moderate climate change would be inordinately expressed in the winter vs. the
summer, in the night vs. the day, and that overall it was plausible to argue
that these changes conferred a net benefit upon our world.


If I had the perfect vision of knowing what would have happened to the climate
in the next ten years, how the scientific literature evolvedÍÊn its attempts
to explain the lack of warming, and in its refusal to recognize persistent,
damaging and pervasive errors in the forecast that continue to this dateͪ would
have changed not one word.


This testimony explains why.


In the last ten years, we have learned that:



In toto, these findings lead inescapably to the conclusion Carbon Dioxide
is not a "pollutant," and plausibly argue that it is a net benefit.


Scientific Background


It has been known since 1872 that water vapor and carbon dioxide are the principal
"greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, and that increasing their concentration
should elevate the temperature in the lower atmosphere. What has been a subject
of contention ever since, is the amount and character of the warming.


Because of all of the atmospheric greenhouse gases emitted by human activity,
we have progressed to roughly a 60% increase in the equivalent natural carbon
dioxide greenhouse effect. The earliest climate projections, made by Arrhenius
in 1896, indicated this would result in a rise in mean global temperature of
approximately 3.25¡¼C. Computer models that served as the basis first Scientific
Assessment of Climate Change by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change were around 1.8¡¼C for current greenhouse changes (Murphy and
Mitchell, 1995). These were lower than original estimates largely because of
the retardation of direct warming by the ocean.


The 1.8¡¼C figure was typical of the range of most climate models, and led to
the scientific bifurcation between the modelling community and the more data-driven
empiricists, who argued that the observed 20th century warming of 0.6¡¼C (with
half of that before the major greenhouse gas changes) indicated future warming
would be around one-third of the mean projected value of 4.2¡¼C over the next
century, or around 1.0 to 1.5¡¼C.


The IPCC admitted the validity of this position in its 1995 report, when it
wrote that:


"When increases in greenhouse gases only are taken into account...most
[climate models] produce a greater mean warming than has been observed to date,
unless a lower climate sensitivity [to the greenhouse effect] is used...There
is growing evidence that increases in sulfate aerosols are partially counteracting
the [warming] due to increases in greenhouse gases."


Are sulfate aerosols responsible for the now-admitted dearth of warming? In
previous testimony I have shown how poorly this argument stands the critical
test of the data. Suffice it to say that the record of the three dimensional
atmospheric temperature in recent decades does not appear at all consistent
with this hypothesis. Instead of repeating that argument, I would simply point
out that the southern half of the planet is virtually devoid of sulfates, and
should have warmed at a prodigious and consistent rate for the last two decades.
Unfortunately, we have very few long-term weather records from that half of
the planet, and almost all come from the relatively uncommon landmasses. However,
we do have over two decades of satellite data (Figure 1), adjusted by John Christy
for orbital decay and other drifts; it shows no change in temperature whatsoever,
although the prominent spike and retreat from the 1998 El Nino is rather
striking.


Figure 1. Southern Hemisphere MSU satellite temperatures,
drift-adjusted, from John Christy of University of Alabama, 1/1/79-8/31/99.
The sulfate hypothesis implies this zone should be warming rapidly.


The failure of the climate models is much more profound than any error that
could simply be corrected by reducing the amount of incoming surface radiation,
which is what the sulfate "fix" does. Instead, it is a failure in
the vertical dimension that has been occurring for nearly a quarter-century.


Figure 2 shows the entire concurrency for our three records of "global"
temperature, which is limited by the beginning of the satellite MSU data in
January 1, 1979. The record is now completing its 21st year.


Our figure shows satellite temperatures, weather balloon temperatures roughly
between 5,000 and 30,000 feet, and surface temperatures measured by thermometers.
There is an increase in the surface record of 0.15¡¼C/decade. Research by NASA
scientists demonstrate that about 0.02¡¼C/decade of this is a result of changes
in the sun (Lean and Rind, 1998), leaving a remaining 0.13¡¼ C/decade ascribable
to human influence or other natural variation. The other two records show no
change.


The disparity between the surface, satellite and weather balloon readings is
likely to have some basis in reality. The concordance between the satellites
and balloons cannot be from chance, so there must be some process occurring
in the lowest layers (below 5,000 feet) that is not being picked up in those
two records.

Figure 2. Satellite, weather balloon (5,000-30,000 ft.),
and surface temperatures since 1/1/79, the beginning of the satellite record.


My research shows that this warming below 5,000 feet is largely confined to
the winter half-year (October-March in the Northern Hemisphere, April-September
in the Southern); as Figure 3 shows, the ratio of winter-to-summer warming is
greater than two-to-one.


Figure 3. Winter and summer half-year warming since 1945 shows
the dominance of winter temperature change.


Now, when we look at the cold half-year temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere
since World War II, it is apparent that the warming is inordinately confined
to Siberia and northwestern North America (Figure 4). These are the two "source
regions" for the coldest continental airmasses on earth. Because of their
coldness, they are very dry, and because of their dryness they have very little
"natural" greenhouse effect and are consequently "warmed"
(if changing the temperature from -40¡¼ C to -38¡¼ C can be called a "warming"!)
more rapidly than moist, summer air.

Figure 4. Winter minus Summer warming trends since 1945 show
the dominance of warming in Siberia and northwestern North America in winter.


In the winter half-year, these airmasses occupy around 25% of our hemisphere.
Recently published research (Michaels et al., 1999; Michaels et al., accepted)
shows that over three quarters of the winter warming is confined to this very
cold air. When we compare the average postwar warming in the statistical gridcells
that comprise these airmasses to those that donÃÕ, the result is truly stunning.
The coldest air is warming up a rate 10 times larger than the remainder
of the hemisphere; see Figure 5. That research also proves that the warming
is largely confined to the cold air masses, and that the more severely cold
they are, the more they warm
.


Figure 5. Average warming rate in Northern Hemisphere
gridcells that are cold and dry (right) vs. the remainder.

Together, these findings all prove that over the entire concurrency of the
surface, satellite and balloon records, there is a warming confined to the bottom
5,000 feet of the atmosphere, but over two-thirds of it is in the winter, and
three-quarters of that is in the most profoundly cold continental air that we
know of. If this is the work of carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant.

Together, these findings also demonstrate a persistent, damaging, and pervasive
error in all climate models, including those that serve as the basis for the
Kyoto Protocol.


Figure 6. Warming predicted for todayÃÔ change in greenhouse
gases and sulfate aerosols by the LLNL model. Note that the entire zone
from 5,000 feet to the stratosphere is predicted to have warmed.


Figure 6 shows the projected quarter-century warming from the Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) climate model incorporating greenhouse
warming and sulfate cooling (addition of stratospheric ozone depletion
changes the result very little), as originally published by Santer et
al. (1996). This finding, more than any other single result, served as
the basis for the 1995 IPCC statement that "the balance of evidence
suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." However,
there is no reason to single out the LLNL model except for its wide availability;
every other one behaves in a quite similar fashion.



The LLNL model and all others are clearly making an egregious error that renders
the magnitude of their predictions of global warming virtually useless: They
all have dramatically failed to predict what happened between 5,000 feet and
the bottom of the stratosphere. This comprises over 80% of the troposphere,
or the earthÃÔ active weather zone.


Our chart shows the observed warming in this zone (as published by Santer et
al., 1999) for various upper atmospheric records vs. the average warming predicted
the current suite of climate models. There is no statistically significant
warming in the observed data since the satellite/balloon concurrency in 1979
,
while the models have an average warming rate of 0.23¡¼C/decade (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Model-projected average tropospheric warming (left)
since 1979 vs. observed values published by Santer et al. (1999).


In other words, the models have been wrong for the last quarter-centuryÍÕhe
period of greatest greenhouse gas increaseÍÐver 80% of the troposphere.


The atmosphere is a mixed fluid; the behavior in one vertical level depends
in part on behavior in others. It is profoundly troubling that, for the last
quarter-century, that projections of surface warming are much closer to observed
values, than what has been observed in the remaining 80% of the troposphere.
This differential calls into question the validity of any projection, surface
or otherwise coming from these models. More important, it indicates that the
"sulfate-greenhouse" paradigm is so inaccurate that it misspecified
almost all of the troposphere.


The Ubiquitous Nature of Observed Changes


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has analyzed postwar temperature
trends in the Unites States and found similar results; see Figure 8. The largest
warming in the last three decades occurs in winter (January through March) which
is the time of year in which severity and presence of the cold high pressure
systems that form in northwestern North America largely determine the winter
departure from normal. Late summer and early fall temperatures actually show
a slight decline.

Figure 8. Seasonal changes since 1966 in the U.S. record,
according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


NOAA has also analyzed U.S. temperatures back to 1895. Even though this record
contains some large cities with artificial urban warming there is no statistically
significant warming in the overall record
(see figure 9).

Figure 9. There
is no statistically significant overall warming trend in the record of U.S.
temperatures, which is 105 years long.


The record can be broken down decadally, i.e., 1895-1997, 1905-1997, 1915-97,
etc...Only one of these combinations shows a significant warming that would
exceed the Frye Rule of disqualification for "junk science" (i.e.
at the .05 level), and that is the period 1965-present. The chance that one
trend (out of the ten possible ones) would show a warming is statistically common,
even at this probability level. It is noteworthy that NOAA, in the report on
climate change that served as the basis for figure 8, "chose" the
only period (1965-97) in the entire 105-year record that showed statistically
significant warming. Later decadal periods (i.e. 1975-97, or 1985-97) do not;
and neither does any earlier period. Perhaps an appropriate question would be
to ask why the only such period out of the ten possible ones was selected for
analysis and publicity.


An Alternative Interpretation


It is hard for me to believe that the billions of dollars that American taxpayers
have invested in climate modeling has produced a completely worthless result
with regard to human-induced climate change. Rather more intriguing is the notion
that at least the models have the functional form of the warming right, but
instead are indecisive about its magnitude.


Figure 10 shows projected warming from a large family of different climate
models. Some increase their atmospheric carbon dioxide at 1% per year, effectively.
Others use the U.N. standard of 0.7%, and others have been adjusted for the
observed lower rate noted by Hansen (1998). Some have sulfate aerosols in them
and others do not.

Figure 10. Output from several representative climate
models. Once warming starts, it takes place at a constant rate.



Regardless of all of these varying assumptions about differences in the exponential
rate of greenhouse forcing or the presence or absence of sulfates, one clear
fact emerges. In general, they are all straight lines. Once greenhouse
warming starts, it proceeds as straight line, not as an exponential increase.


What differs between the models is not their functional formÍÔtraight linesÍÃut
the slope (or rate of increase) in those lines. In fact, the mean and
standard error of the warming are 0.25¡¼C ¥¢ 0.07¡¼C/decade, where the confidence
range is at 67%.


Which of these models is likely to be correct? Under the assumption of linearity,
nature helps to provide an answer, as global near-surface temperature has risen
as a straight line, too, in the last three decades. The slope since 1968, when
warming began, is 0.15¡¼C/decade (Figure 11). This is slightly below the low
confidence limit given by the ensemble of models shown here.


Figure 11. The observed linear trend in temperature
for the last three decades is lower than the projections of most climate
models.


However, Lean and Rind indicate that approximately 0.02¡¼C/decade of recent
warming is likely to be caused by solar variation; subtracting away this small
amount gives a warming rate of 0.13¡¼C/ten years.


Assuming linearity, this gives a rise of 1.3¡¼C in the next centuryÍÑrecisely
at the midpoint of the range to which I first testified over ten years ago.


Models are also linear with respect to their cold and warm season warmings.
Given the differential that we have seen since 1968, the expected winter and
summer half-year warmings work out to 1.45 and 1.15¡¼ C, respectively, in the
next century.


During this century, we experienced a temperature rise of approximately half
of these values. Crop yields quintupled. Life span doubled, in part because
of better nutrition. Winters warmed. Growing seasons lengthened. The planet
became greener. Increasing carbon dioxide had something to do with each and
every one of these. There is simply no logical reason to assume that doing the
same, this time in 50, instead of 100 years, will have any different effect
in kind. That kind of improvement in the quality of human life could hardly
be caused by a "pollutant."


References


Balling, R.C., et al., 1998. Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in
gridded temperature timeseries. Climate Research, 9, 175-181.

Hansen, J.E., et al., 1998. A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing
noticeably? Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences, 95,
4113¡¦120.

Houghton, J.T., et al., (eds.),1996. Climate Change 1995: The science of
climate change, contribution of the WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
. Cambridge University Press, New
York, 572pp.

Landsea, C.W., et al., 1996. Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic
hurricanes during the past five decades. Geophysical Research Letters,
23, 1697-1700.

Lean, J., and D. Rind, 1998. Climate forcing by changing solar radiation.
Journal of Climate
, 11, 3069¡¦094.

Lins, H.F., and J.R. and Slack, 1999. Streamflow trends in the United States.
Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 227¡¦30.

Michaels, P.J., et al., 1998. Analysis of trends in the variability of daily
and monthly historical temperature measurements. Climate Research, 10,
27-33.

Michaels, P.J. et al.,.1999. Greenhouse warming in cold anticyclones. To appear
in Proceedings of the 1999 International Congress of Biometeorology and International
Conference on Urban Climatology
, Sydney, Australia.

Michaels, P.J. et al.,. Observed warming in cold anticyclones. accepted for
Climate Research
.

Murphy, J.M., and J.F.B.Mitchell, 1995. Transient response of the Hadley Centre
Coupled Model to increasing carbon dioxide. Part II. temporal and spatial evolution
of patterns. Journal of Climate, 8, 57¡¦0.

Santer, B.D., et al., 1996. A search for human influences on the thermal structure
of the atmosphere. Nature, 382, 39¡¦6.

Santer, B.D., et al., 1999. Uncertainties in "observational" estimates
of temperature change in the free atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research,
104, 6305-6334.

Tinker, R., 1999. U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Trends. Climate
Prediction Center, National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration. www.cpc.noaa.gov/trndtext.htm

Wigley, T.M.L., 1998. The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications.
Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2285¡¦288.






[500] An Interview with David Friedman Åê¹Æ¼Ô¡§ÌÀ¿Í Åê¹ÆÆü¡§2000/12/10(Sun) 00:16

D.Friedman¤Î¥¤¥ó¥¿¥Ó¥å¡¼µ­»ö¤Ç¤¹¡£
http://www.zolatimes.com/v2.18/friedint.html
¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á¡Á
An Interview with David Friedman
by Alberto Mingardi and Guglielmo Piombini
City Times Questions are in Italics


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Your book The Machinery of Freedom is dedicated to Bob Heinlein, F.A. Hayek and your father, Milton Friedman, who received the 1976 Nobel Prize for Economics. How did they influence you with respect to Machinery and libertarianism?

I learned economics--and clear thinking--from him [my father] in conversation when I was growing up, and applied both, I hope, in the book.

Is it true that you've said your father Milton is a quite socialistic in comparison with yourself?

He believes in having government run several important industries--specifically, the industry of settling disputes--the courts--and the industry of enforcing rights--the police. In that respect he is more socialist than I am.

A fairer description would be that I think a society with private property and no government might not work but probably would; he thinks it might work but probably would not.

A typical 1968's slogan was this : "We're reasonable : we want the impossible". Hayek said that in his opinion Classic Liberalism needs an "utopia". Is anarcho-capitalism the "utopia" of Classical Liberalism or do you think that in the future we'll see the birth of an anarcho-capitalist society ?

I am not a utopian. For reasons I discuss in The Machinery of Freedom, while I think an anarcho-capitalist society could work better than any alternative I know of, I do not expect it to work perfectly. I do think it is useful to an intellectual movement to see what happens if it carries its ideas all the way--which is what anarcho-capitalism does with the ideas of classical liberalism.

I do not know whether we will see an anarcho-capitalist society in the future, but I do not think it is impossible.

Technological innovations, the Internet, the globalization of markets, and the fall of collectivist ideas have created a crisis for the Nation-State. At the same time, claims of self-determination are increasing. Is there a relationship ?

I think current technological and other developments are favorable to libertarian and anarcho-capitalist objectives. How favorable I do not know.

Are these developments responsible for the simultaneous appearance of libertarianism and movements for local autonomy?

Movements for local autonomy have been around for quite a long time. What may be true is that in a world economy, local regions no longer feel as dependent as they once did on being part of a larger state. So far as the implications of the Internet and related technologies, while I think they will be important I also think it is too early to expect them to have had much political effect yet.

Some scholars, like H.H. Hoppe, believe that in order to remove trust in the State, the Nation State itself must be destroyed. Do you think so? Must libertarians appeal to all the secessionist movements?

No. My ideal path to anarcho-capitalism would be one in which private institutions gradually replaced government institutions, so that when the state finally vanished nobody noticed. An entertaining tongue-in-cheek version of such a society is described in the science fiction novel Snow Crash.

Obviously, secessionist movements can lead to a more libertarian society--more generally, geographically small governments have less control over their subjects than geographically large governments, because the border is nearer. But they [small governments] don't have to lead to a more libertarian society. The more homogeneous a population is, the easier it is to suppress people who don't fit in--and secessionist movements tend to create states with more homogeneous populations.

In envisioning a free future, why do you look to the Middle Ages? Where is the dividing line between the Dark Ages that history books describe and the free society you're thinking of?

One of the problems in judging past societies is the difficulty of separating the consequences of poverty from the consequences of a particular set of political institutions. Thus 19th century America and Britain are often described as unattractive societies by people who are comparing them to 20th century societies--and ignoring the fact that 20th century societies are so rich in large part because of progress made during the 19th century.

The same problem exists in judging feudalism. It looks ugly to us in part because people were much poorer then. On the other hand, feudalism was a decentralized political system, in which the combined armies of the barons were much larger than the army of the king. And it was a system where the relevant border--not between kingdoms but between baronies--was pretty close, so local lords had to be concerned about the risk that if they treated their subjects badly they might get a better deal from the next lord over.

On the whole, I think the change from feudalism to absolute monarchy was a step backwards-- the monarchs of the sixteenth and seventeenth century were in a better position to oppress their subjects than the feudal lords of the thirteenth century. One can imagine an alternate history in which, as people got richer and technology developed, feudalism evolved into anarcho- capitalism--but, of course, that is not how it happened.

The first principle of libertarianism is NON-violence. But if violence isn't a means, how do we attain a more free society?

By changing people's beliefs. The state, after all, doesn't really exist--it is a legal fiction maintained by the fact that people are willing to collect taxes, pay taxes, enforce government laws, obey government laws (perhaps less willing to pay and obey in Italy than some other places), etc.

In Machinery, you wrote that you were quite perplexed about anarcho-capitalism in relation to national defense. Is your position still the same?

The only change is that the collapse of the Soviet Union makes the problem much less serious; we don't have to raise very much money voluntarily to defend ourselves from Mexico and Canada.

You've also said that you're a "liberal like Adam Smith, or a conservative like Goldwater". Do you share Goldwater's last declarations about Mr. Clinton and "pro-life" organizations?

I wrote those words twenty-some years ago; I have not followed Goldwater's career in any detail since. I am not an admirer of Mr. Clinton nor a supporter of "pro-life" organizations (or their opponents, for that matter).

Why is it that 89 percent of Americans (this number comes from "Advocates for Self-Government") don't want to legalize soft drugs?

1. I don't know if it [this number] is true.

2. If it is true, presumably because they believe one or more of the bad arguments made against legalization. There was a time when a majority of the U.S. was against legalizing wine.

Will the 21th Century be the "Libertarian Century" ?

Possibly. I'm not a prophet.

-30-


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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¡¡£±¡ËAllan H. Meltzer, ¡ÈMonetary Policy in the New Global Economy: the Case of Japan,¡É _The Cato Journal_, Vol.20, No.1, 2000, pp.69-72.

¡¡£²¡ËRonald I. McKinnon, ¡ÈThe Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Liquidity Trap,¡É_The Cato Journal_, Vol.20, No.1, 2000, pp.73-84.


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